This has been a tough year for predictions. As the Golden Globes and the SAG awards have already made their picks, it is easier to predict who will walk away with the Oscar in the top categories.
In general, this is a year where money-makers will be rewarded and traditionally overlooked actors will be acknowledged by the Academy.
Best Film
I just want to say that I find it deeply annoying that the Academy has decided to nominate ten films this year, as opposed to the traditional five. Instead of extending the list of nominated films, they should start making better choices. Like last year, when they should have clearly nominated "The Dark Knight", but didn't. This year they could show some taste and NOT nominate "Avatar". It's a crap film, everyone knows it, so stop being all impressed with the visual effects.
But Avatar will win. This film has made so much fucking money, already having surpassed Titanic as the top-grossing film of all time, that the Academy will want to give it an Oscar. They must be trembling with orgasmic glee at all that money.
However. If there is an upset, The Hurt Locker will take top prize. It ain't gonna happen, though. That goddamn Avatar is blinding everyone with all that money and stupid fucking special effects.
Best Actor
I would like to see Colin Firth win best actor. It is widely acknowledged that his role in "A Single Man" is a career best. But he has lost out to Jeff Bridges at this point, who seems set to win his first Oscar for "Crazy Heart". This will be a case of giving Bridges the award he should have won years ago ("Tron", "The Contender", "The Big Lebowski", etc.). This is definitely his year, and deservedly so.
Best Actress
Out of all the main categories, this seems to be the most unpredictable. The likely nominees are Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia), Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station).
Both Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan, though praised as hell for their respective roles, are still in their early years as actors/stars to actually win the Oscar. Also, their momentum has died down considerably since their names were first considered for the prize. Helen Mirren has won her Oscar already. The contest is between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep. Streep, who has been nominate about 549 times making her the most nominated actor ever, is bound to win her third Oscar at some point. But her portrayal of Julia Child will not bring her such luck. The Academy should have awarded her another Oscar as Best Supporting Actress for "Adaptation", but did not. They should have given it to her for "The Devil Wears Prada", but did not. They won't embarrass themselves this year and give it to her for this lesser role.
So in a year of rewarding money makers and actors who have been relegated to the sidelines at awards shows, this will be the year of Sandra Bullock. And I like that.
Even if hers is not the best performance, she has made buckets of money this past year. The Proposal did very well, and The Blind Side made history as the first female-led film to hit the $200 million mark in box office. This ain't no small feat. Bullock clearly fits the money maker criteria for this year's Oscars. Also, she is universally liked as an actress. Well, I like her. Which is universal enough.
Unlike Julia Roberts, Sandra Bullock has not drowned in arrogance into her 40s. At 45 years of age, her career is still in full gear. In the spirit of inclusion (nominating ten films, giving Bridges his first Oscar), the Academy will give Sandra Bullock her first nomination and Oscar for a career that, quite frankly, has quietly surpassed in talent (yes, talent), charisma and box office those of Hollywood's most powerful stars.
Best Supporting Actor
Not much to say here. Christoph Waltz will win the Oscar because no actor this year BLEW OUR MINDS as he did in "Inglourious Basterds" as Nazi officer Hans Landa. Actually, I object to him being nominated in the supporting actor category. But whatever. He is going to win.
Best Supporting Actress
Also set in stone. Mo'nique will win her first Oscar as the diabolical Mary Jones in "Precious". The other probable nominees pale in comparison to her monstrous performance. Also, the Academy loves it when a comedian turns dramatic.
Best Director
James Cameron will not win. Avatar made all this stinking money boring us to death with their stupid blue people. But the Academy always likes to make a little history so... Katherine Bigelow, Cameron's ex-wife, will be the first female director to receive an Oscar for "The Hurt Locker". It also helps that she is the most deserving.
As a side note, I think that Hollywood is secretly annoyed by James Cameron, but since he makes a lot of money, they tolerate him. James Cameron annoys the shit out of me. What the hell was that "king of the world" crap about.
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